From Reuters Health Information

Swine Flu: Is the US Prepared for the Autumn Surge?

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) Aug 31 - The United States is unprepared to handle the potential spike in people needing mechanical ventilation due to infection with H1N1 swine influenza, warn researchers in the online open-access journal PLoS Currents: Influenza.

"We calculate that 46 million people will contract the infection, resulting in 2.7 million hospitalizations, 331,587 episodes of acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, and nearly 200,000 deaths," write Dr. Marya D. Zilberberg, a health services researcher in Leeds, Massachusetts, and colleagues.

Based on these estimates, the US may require the ability to provide mechanical ventilation at a volume between 23% and 45% over the current annual use, the authors note.

They also point out that the vast majority of H1N1 cases potentially needing mechanical ventilation will occur during the peak flu season, "thus straining the ICU and mechanical ventilation capacity even more intensely over a shorter period of time."